AMNA NAWAZ: Well, for more now on President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill, we turn to our Politics Stakes duo.

That's Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.

Great to see you both.

AMY WALTER, The Cook Political Report: Good to be here.

AMNA NAWAZ: Let's pick up with that budget bill and where it stands now.

Tam, it is central to the president's agenda.

It is not done yet.

The Senate has still voting on it.

It's still got to go back to the House.

Is there any reason you see it not getting across the finish line and not by this self-imposed July 4 deadline?

TAMARA KEITH, National Public Radio: So a key thing that you said there is that it is central to the president's agenda.

This is essentially his entire domestic legislative agenda all wrapped up into one bill, which makes it very hard for Republicans to vote against it.

And I think it's really important to remember that this is not the Republican Party that came in with him eight years ago.

This is his Republican Party.

This is a very compliant Congress.

There have been numerous other bills where we have all looked at each other and said, oh, my gosh, there are so many problems.

Is this really going to pass?

And there are all these people speaking, all these Republicans with all these complaints.

And then what happened?

They folded.

And so unless something dramatic happens -- and it can, it absolutely can -- at some point this is going to pass.

Now, President Trump had talked about really wanting it done by Independence Day.

Speaker Mike Johnson actually said that the president wanted to have a celebration on Independence Day.

He said it would be epic.

AMNA NAWAZ: Yes.

TAMARA KEITH: He could still get that, but it's just -- the timing is where it could get a little bit challenging.

AMNA NAWAZ: Amy, you see it the same way?

AMY WALTER: Yes, if you're a House member, first of all, Republican House member, 60 percent of them came -- have come to Congress since Trump was elected.

So they know of nothing else, to Tam's point.

The second is your choice as a Republican right now is you vote against it and you get the wrath of Donald Trump, who, as we have pointed out, went after Thom Tillis after he voted against it, has come after Thomas Massie, a Republican from Kentucky in the House who voted against the original version there.

So you can get a primary from your right with the support of the president, which is incredibly powerful and likely lose your primary, or you can vote for it.

And now we have Elon Musk, most recently today, taking to X, his platform, to say that anybody who campaigned as a fiscal conservative who voted for this, I'm going to spend money to try to defeat you in a primary.

If I were a Republican member with those two forces against me, I would still go with Trump.

He is still the most powerful force in Republican politics right now.

If you want to end your political career, crossing Trump is the easiest way to do that.

AMNA NAWAZ: So let's just talk about someone ending their political career.

You mentioned North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis, who was one of two no-votes against this bill, along with Rand Paul, as Lisa reported earlier.

Tillis explained his decision a little bit in the floor speech last night.

Take a listen.

SEN. THOM TILLIS (R-NC): I'm telling the president that you have been misinformed.

You supporting the Senate mark will hurt people who are eligible and qualified for Medicaid.

AMNA NAWAZ: Tam, you saw the president attack Tillis for this, threatened to primary him.

Tillis announced he is not running for reelection.

Also, we should note that Republican Don Bacon in the House announced he is not going to seek reelection either.

What do these retirements say to you?

TAMARA KEITH: I think that there was a time where members of the president's party in Congress could have an independent streak.

They could stand up to the president.

They could say that they were fighting for their constituents in their states and their districts, and that there would be sort of an understanding.

But, right now, one, the numbers are so narrow that there isn't really a lot of room for them to be able to do that and have the president still get what he wants.

And, also, President Trump has run out of the Republican Party, made it very uncomfortable for anyone who has crossed him any time since he took office.

There's a long list of former senators and former members of the House who either voted for impeachment or expressed concerns with the president or any number of things.

And they either retire themselves or are retired by facing a primary.

AMY WALTER: Yes, and, remember, Don Bacon represents one of only three districts in the country that voted for Kamala Harris and a Republican member of Congress, which goes to the bigger challenge for Congress right now.

Tam's point about there being the sort of iconoclast is true, but part of the reason that they were in Congress then is that they also tended to represent the split-ticket districts.

There are very few of those left.

And so what -- it makes Congress that much more dysfunctional when, if you are from a red state, you're only hearing from people in your conference who are also from red states.

Same with the blue state people.

And so it makes it very hard for them to get on the same page because they literally don't have anyone within the confines of their own party who are saying, no, I actually represent a place that looks different from yours.

Let me give you my perspective on it.

And so now we do -- this is how the red America will say this is OK and blue America will say it's not and there's no one bridging the two.

AMNA NAWAZ: Let me ask you about -- these are shifts we're seeing on the Republican side.

We're seeing some shifts on the Democratic side as well.

Amy, there's the whole debate on the left about whether the New York City mayoral primary race that was won by Zohran Mamdani, whether it offers a road map for other Democrats and other places.

AMY WALTER: Right.

AMNA NAWAZ: Does it?

AMY WALTER: I think what he has shown is that we talk so much in politics about there being the spectrum of policy, about being left to right.

This is really -- what he's putting forward for Democrats, I think, is that politics really now is about being somebody who's willing to break norms and go against institutions or somebody that's going to stand for it for and for the status quo.

In 2020, Democrats were desperate to talk about returning to normalcy and they put as their placeholder Joe Biden.

That does not work in this current era.

And I think what Democrats saw in the last election was they put a norm person up, somebody who was going to protect norms.

That person lost to somebody who said he was going to break the status quo and institutions.

I think Democrats taking from this, Mamdani, as well as other races, that idea similarly, that we need to put candidates forward who are going to break things and have a plan to fix them, but not ones who are saying we need to go back.

AMNA NAWAZ: Tam, give you the final word here.

As someone who covers the president, if you take a step back here, the budget bill seems to be moving forward.

He's off a big NATO trip.

He had a couple of big Supreme Court decisions go his way.

This has to be a White House that feels pretty good about where they are.

TAMARA KEITH: They are feeling pretty good, but every time you have a problem solved, there's another problem to solve.

And we still have the One Big Beautiful Bill that they are trying to heave over the finish line by July 4.

And then there are other deadlines, these trade deadlines.

President Trump obviously created those deadlines.

He can move them.

But this moment could come to define his presidency.

AMNA NAWAZ: Tamara Keith and Amy Walter, great to see you both.

Thank you so much.

AMY WALTER: You're welcome.

TAMARA KEITH: You're welcome.